Better (& More Honest) Estimating

I think that most project estimates are deliberate fictions.

Not because people are incompetent. Not because the tools are broken. But because we’re either wildly optimistic or pressured to pretend we are.

I’ve seen it time and again.
Time, cost, resource needs, risk assessments all get skewed. Not always by malice. Sometimes by hope. Sometimes because the organisational culture rewards confidence over realism. Sometimes because no one wants to be the person in the room saying,

“This might not work.”
“That’s going to cost more.”
“We don’t have the people for that.”

And so the estimates get rounded down. The risks get softened. The best case scenario gets reported as the most likely outcome.

Then, when the project goes sideways, we act surprised.

It doesn’t have to be this way, and shouldn’t be this way if we really want to increase the chances of project success.

We can do better estimates. We can assess uncertainty more realistically. But it’s not just about tools and techniques (though they help).

It’s about honesty. It’s about courage to say what you actually believe. And support from leaders, sponsors, and peers to create a culture where that honesty is welcome and expected

Imagine if:
• We treated realism as a strength, not a weakness
• We valued the person who says “here’s the actual likelihood of success”
• We used estimates not as sales pitches, but as decision tools

We’d still have project challenges, sure, but we’d go into them with our eyes wide open and that’s a much better way to deliver successfully.